NFL Teams most often score in multiples of 3 ( which are your field goals) and 7 (which includes touchdown plus the extra point).
These margin of victories are simply known as “NFL Key Numbers” and wise sports bettors knowing when to get on or off these key numbers have a tremendous advantage over players and definitely increase their winning percentages.
Based on a study through the 2015 NFL Season, out of 2670 NFL games played . (including the regular season and the post season) we found that 411 of these games have ended with a margin of victory of 3 points or 18.70%.
Sharp NFL bettors use these stats and shop for the best line to lay -2.5 or take +3.5 and turn potential pushes into wins.
Furthermore, the most likely final margin in an NFL game is three points. Almost 9% of all favorites win exactly by a field goal, and the 2nd most likely final margin is by 7 points – in which 6% of the favorites win by a touchdown plus the extra point.
Other key numbers to be aware of and incorporate in your NFL wagering strategy are four, six, 10 and 14. Favorites will land on these 4 numbers in nearly 14.3% of all games.
To get that edge against other NFL bettors, it’s extremely important to pay close attention to key numbers where the games are more competitive. The sharp NFL bettors understand that favorites at a half-point more than “3” and “7” will give value.
There is an old adage in sports betting that you should always remember, “you don’t bet the teams …. you bet the numbers.” If you follow this rule and study your key numbers, you will definitely come out ahead of your fellow NFL bettors.